A 30-year historical analysis by WhiteOak Capital Mutual Fund found that mid-cap benchmarks delivered the strongest 10-year rolling returns for systematic investment plans (SIPs), outperforming both large-cap and small-cap benchmarks on average and median measures. The study compared the Nifty 100 TRI, Nifty Midcap 150 TRI and Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI—the benchmarks for large-, mid- and small-cap mutual funds—from August 1996 to October 2026.
WhiteOak’s SIP analysis used 10-year monthly rolling returns, measured as XIRR, with the first observation recorded on 1 April 2015. Rolling returns calculate annualised returns for successive 10-year investment periods, moving the starting date forward by one month each time. The return for an investment started in April 2015 is therefore compared with one started in May 2015, and so on. The method is designed to assess consistency across different market cycles instead of relying on a single starting date.
| Return measure | Large-cap (Nifty 100 TRI) | Mid-cap (Nifty Midcap 150 TRI) | Small-cap (Nifty Smallcap 250 TRI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average return | 13.00% | 17.62% | 15.02% |
| Median return | 13.35% | 18.33% | 15.62% |
| Minimum return | 4.26% | 5.93% | -0.46% |
| Maximum return | 17.05% | 23.58% | 22.38% |
| Times positive return | 100% | 100% | 99% |
| Times more than 10% return | 94% | 98% | 88% |
| Times more than 12% return | 72% | 96% | 80% |
| Times more than 15% return | 14% | 81% | 58% |
Mid-caps posted the highest average return at 17.62%, against 15.02% for small-caps and 13.00% for large-caps. The median return also favoured mid-caps at 18.33%, compared with 15.62% for small-caps and 13.35% for large-caps. Because the median is the middle value when returns are arranged from lowest to highest, the result indicates that mid-caps performed better not only on average but also in the typical 10-year period. The figures refer to benchmark indices rather than individual fund schemes.
Mid-caps also recorded the highest maximum return at 23.58%, followed by small-caps at 22.38% and large-caps at 17.05%. Small-caps had the weakest minimum return at -0.46%. Mid-caps had the highest minimum return at 5.93%, ahead of large-caps at 4.26%.
Both large-cap and mid-cap benchmarks delivered positive returns in 100% of the observed 10-year rolling periods. Small-caps were positive in 99% of periods. Mid-caps exceeded 15% returns in 81% of periods, compared with 58% for small-caps and 14% for large-caps. They also beat 12% in 96% of periods, against 80% for small-caps and 72% for large-caps, and exceeded 10% in 98% of periods, compared with 88% for small-caps and 94% for large-caps.
WhiteOak’s study said the mid-cap segment was “a good investment option for investors seeking to invest via the long-term SIP route” among the three market-cap categories.
Historical index performance does not guarantee future mutual fund returns. Investors should assess their risk appetite, investment horizon and financial goals before choosing a category for their SIPs.
